Ian Graham stressed that transfers tend to fail due to any one of seven reasons:
1. Current player is better than the new player
2. The player is not as good as first thought
3. The player does not fit the style of the team
4. The player is played out of position
5. The manager does not rate the player
6. The player has fitness issues
7. The player has personal issues
Even if a club has 90% confidence that each of these factors will not occur, in a simplified calculation Graham showcased how this still only yields a total 48% chance of every transfer being a success:
90% x 90% x 90% x 90% x 90% x 90% x 90% = 48%
Analytics can play a significant role in assisting with the first three of those areas, ensuring Sporting Directors and Heads of Recruitment are fully informed before investing in new players.
Graham, who has worked alongside renowned Sporting Director Michael Edwards for a decade, continued: "We have to make sure the player fits the style of the team. That's a core competency of the analytics team that we understand the style of play of our team...
"The reason is that the transfer market values these things the same way we do. So the trick to improve these things is to try and work out what is over-valued by the transfer market and try to pay less for that.
"We work out what is under-valued, which should be cheaper anyway, and we can make some valuable signings."
Anketa